Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Wrong on Goldman

A number of you have made observations about the Goldman stock sales that are more likely better explanations of those sales than my posting so . . . I was wrong (I think). Or at least I am willing to entertain that the explanation was more nuanced than I originally proposed. Here are the comments (from those of you who still have not figured out how to post a comment . . . )

Commenter #1
I think you missed on this one. The Goldman insiders sold for a variety of reasons, including margin calls, funding obligations, diversification…maybe even a little fear. However, the decisions of individuals does not alter the strength of the institution. Whether or not Goldman is fairly priced in this new world, their market presence in undeniable and their collective intelligence remains impressive. Ask yourself this question: IF you want to be invested in the financial sector, with whom would you RATHER be invested in than GS?

Commenter #2
I'm no Goldman apologist, but I think you are fuzzing private economic
behavior with the ability of Goldman, as an institution, to make
profits.

I think that individual selling (and $700 million is a rounding error,
in my mind) was attributable to a perfect storm of (i) margin calls,
(ii) too many individual illiquid investments, (iii) inability to pull
capital out of hedge funds and other investments which froze
redemptions, (iv) other short term obligations coming due (the house
in Aspen with a bullet payment due) and (v) smaller bonuses not being
able to finance current cash needs.

I sold at $120 on the way down, and am kicking myself. Of course, I
was feeling pretty smart when GS went to $75.....

Commenter #3
I think it means an amazing number of execs were doubling down with margin accounts that got called. Then they had to sell at the bottom....

1 comment: