Egyptian Turmoil . . . American Incompentence

Less than two years ago, when the rogue, international outlaw, regime in Iran was dealing with street protests (much larger and more widespread than the current Egyptian protests) and Iran was at the tipping point of possibly falling to a strong and deep democratic (small "d") movement, the Obama Administration's posture was that that was an internal problem for the Iranian people to sort out and that the U.S. was not going to get involved. The U.S. Governemnt did nothing publicly to support the democratic movement in Iran, which was subsequently, mercilessly, crushed by the ruling mullahs.

Today, the repressive Iranian regime is more in control of the country than before the protests and we missed a possibly once-in-a-generation opportunity to nudge that country towards the democratic column.

Flash forward to today, when the Mubarak regime in Egypt, a close U.S. ally for 30 years, is dealing with street protests. Today, the Obama Administration is threatening to pull our $1.5 Billion of annual support if the Mubarak regime uses force to quell the rebellion. While it is certainly true that Mubarak is no democrat (small "d") and that individual freedoms do not reign in Egypt today, it seemed that the Obama Administration's policy with respect to such matters, at least in the case of Iran, was to back away and let the people of the country in question determine their fate.

Is there something upside down in all this? Backing away from Iran while strongly inserting ourselves on the side of street protests in Egypt, our ally?

The U.S. Government could be hastening the fall of the Egyptian Government, not having a clue what kind of regime will follow in its wake. It is entirely possible that Egypt could morph into an Islamic ruled state, similar to Iran. The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in Egypt and has strong roots there, to this day, despite being repressed for the last several decades. Arab Nationalism is a strong under-current in Egypt, and has been for decades, back to Nasser, and before. We have no idea what is next for Egypt if Mubarak falls.

The stakes are quite high for the U.S. in all this. Peace in the Middle East is dependent on a stable Egypt. If Egypt falls, the next regime may take a different approach to the Camp David Accords and to Israel. Already there is pressure in Egypt to develop nuclear weapons to counter the emerging Iranian nuclear threat. Imagine if a openly hostile regime were to take power in Egypt and start a crash program to develop nuclear weapons. What would you do if you were Israel in those circumstances? Where does the peace process go if Israel can not count on its Arab neighbors to honor their agreements? I have heard Israelis say that Camp David was one bullet away from being scrapped by the Egyptians. Is the U.S. actually loading the gun and providing the bullet for that?

One does not go gambling with uncertain outcomes when the consequences are so dire.

It just all seems so amateurish. So, wide-eyed and naive.

Threats to withhold aid should be made privately. Making them publicly only adds fuel to the fire and emboldens the street protesters. Do we want to do that when we don't know what is next in Egypt?

2012 can not come fast enough.