North Korea: I Have a Plan!

We have spent more than a decade trying to convince the North Koreans to give up their nuclear program, giving them billions in food aid and humanitarian assistance and engaging in multi-party talks, direct negotiations, pretty much any way they wanted to talk, we tried. We even gave them fuel oil to help get them through the cold winters.

What have we gotten in return?

Not a damn thing. They continued their clandestine program after promising to stop, even kicking out international inspectors. They threaten their neighbors, which include three of our largest trading partners (Japan, South Korea and China). They help other rogue states with their nuclear programs, further endangering the World (several N. Korean technicians were rumored to have been killed during Israel's strike on Syria's nuclear plant last year).

They are cheats, liars and scoundrels. So . . . why do we keep thinking that if only we could give them what they want, they will stop all this nonsense? Clinton did it. Bush did it. Now it looks like Obama will follow the failed policies of the last three administrations. This Chamberlain-esque foreign policy is not working. John Bolton was right. The soft approach doesn't work with these people. We need to harden our approach to North Korea.

The long term problem is that if they are allowed to continue to test ballistic missiles and develop more powerful nukes, eventually, they will pose a direct threat to the U.S. At which point, it will be too late to do anything meaningful about it without risking a nuclear missile being shot at our West Coast. We can not deter someone who has nothing to lose. Deterrence worked with the Soviets because they thought about their country, and survival, in conventional terms.

So, here's my plan: coordinated Chinese/American/Japanese naval and air blockade, coupled with economic blockade, until such time that they either start a war, in which case China and the U.S. will finish it quickly, or they give in and give up power (we may need to agree to let the leaders live in exile . . . Guantanamo Beach Resort, perhaps?) so that the North can be incorporated into the South and the dynamic on the Korean penninsula totally changes. War is the most likely outcome of a blockade, let's not kid ourselves. But better now than after they perfect a ballistic missile capable of reaching LA.

If China won't join, let's negotiate at least a standstill with them. China doesn't want American troops on their border. We may need to temporarily have U.S. troops in North Korean territory, but just until the hostilities end. After that, we won't move them any further North than Seoul and eventually (on a set timetable) out of the country altogether as the main justification for having them there would be gone (this could be the card China wants to see played).

There is no other path forward. We can not trust the North Koreans. They continue to lie, cheat and steal. We can choose to continue to play the delay game, but this works in their favor, not ours. As we wait patiently for change, they continue to export nuclear and missile technology and thumb their noses at the UN and USA. If we keep this up, eventually, they will develop a three stage missile that can reach the West Coast. Or, they will sell a nuke to a nonstate actor, which would challenge the deterrence scheme that has assured no wartime use of nuclear arms since 1945.

The time to act is now. Wouldn't it be ironic if President Obama did what Bush was unwilling to do with respect to North Korea?

Woldy