Egyptian Turmoil . . . American Incompentence

Less than two years ago, when the rogue, international outlaw, regime in Iran was dealing with street protests (much larger and more widespread than the current Egyptian protests) and Iran was at the tipping point of possibly falling to a strong and deep democratic (small "d") movement, the Obama Administration's posture was that that was an internal problem for the Iranian people to sort out and that the U.S. was not going to get involved. The U.S. Governemnt did nothing publicly to support the democratic movement in Iran, which was subsequently, mercilessly, crushed by the ruling mullahs.

Today, the repressive Iranian regime is more in control of the country than before the protests and we missed a possibly once-in-a-generation opportunity to nudge that country towards the democratic column.

Flash forward to today, when the Mubarak regime in Egypt, a close U.S. ally for 30 years, is dealing with street protests. Today, the Obama Administration is threatening to pull our $1.5 Billion of annual support if the Mubarak regime uses force to quell the rebellion. While it is certainly true that Mubarak is no democrat (small "d") and that individual freedoms do not reign in Egypt today, it seemed that the Obama Administration's policy with respect to such matters, at least in the case of Iran, was to back away and let the people of the country in question determine their fate.

Is there something upside down in all this? Backing away from Iran while strongly inserting ourselves on the side of street protests in Egypt, our ally?

The U.S. Government could be hastening the fall of the Egyptian Government, not having a clue what kind of regime will follow in its wake. It is entirely possible that Egypt could morph into an Islamic ruled state, similar to Iran. The Muslim Brotherhood was founded in Egypt and has strong roots there, to this day, despite being repressed for the last several decades. Arab Nationalism is a strong under-current in Egypt, and has been for decades, back to Nasser, and before. We have no idea what is next for Egypt if Mubarak falls.

The stakes are quite high for the U.S. in all this. Peace in the Middle East is dependent on a stable Egypt. If Egypt falls, the next regime may take a different approach to the Camp David Accords and to Israel. Already there is pressure in Egypt to develop nuclear weapons to counter the emerging Iranian nuclear threat. Imagine if a openly hostile regime were to take power in Egypt and start a crash program to develop nuclear weapons. What would you do if you were Israel in those circumstances? Where does the peace process go if Israel can not count on its Arab neighbors to honor their agreements? I have heard Israelis say that Camp David was one bullet away from being scrapped by the Egyptians. Is the U.S. actually loading the gun and providing the bullet for that?

One does not go gambling with uncertain outcomes when the consequences are so dire.

It just all seems so amateurish. So, wide-eyed and naive.

Threats to withhold aid should be made privately. Making them publicly only adds fuel to the fire and emboldens the street protesters. Do we want to do that when we don't know what is next in Egypt?

2012 can not come fast enough.

More Consequences of a Weak Foreign Policy

It is no coincidence that North Korea sunk a South Korean submarine and is now shelling a South Korean island, killing several people. In the past, the regime in North Korea was satisfied just talking a big game, and building their nuclear program secretly. Now, they realize that the worst thing that will happen to them is the Obama Administration running to the UN and passing yet another resolution condemning North Korea. In other words, there are no real consequences.

This, on top of the humiliating treatment of the US President at the Group of 20 meeting ten days ago . . .

This, on top of the failure of the Obama Administration to achieve any results with Iran, Syria, Lebanon . . . tossing our friends Poland and Czech Republic over for the Russian Mafia Regime.

In two short years, Obama has managed to gut our power on the World stage.

Well, he has been right about one thing . . . the US is certainly not seen the same way in the World any longer . . . at least he has that "success" to fall back upon . . .

The President Still Doesn't Get It

He said today that he takes responsibility for not getting his message through. He wants to really work hard at helping us to understand the subtleties of what he is trying to accomplish. Wrong again, Mr. President.

You don't need to re-package your message. You didn't go too fast. We weren't blinded by anger at the economy. We understand the implications of what you are trying to do. We get that you want more regulation, larger government, more spending (to "help" us) and higher taxes.

And, we decisively rejected your policies on Tuesday night.

I think Senator McConnell is right. The President needs a pink slip. If he continues to try to patronize the voters, instead of listening to them, he will get his pink slip in 2012 (as long as the GOP doesnt' nominate SP).

Step Carefully Over the Corpse . . . it Might Come Back!!

Tomorrow will usher in a new GOP majority in the House. That much appears to be certain. The only question is how big this victory will be for the GOP. Will it be 40 seats? Or as high as 75 seats, as some pundits are predicting. We will find out in very short order.

The danger begins Wednesday for the new GOP majority because it is pretty clear that the public is not so much giving the GOP a resounding victory as they are repudiating the short lived Big Government era of Barack Obama, Henry Reid and Nancy Pelosi. In other words, the GOP is seen as the solution to the Democrats. They better offer up some solutions, instead of just "saying no" as Nancy Reagan used to say.

When the Democrat leadership insisted on a really huge (a trillion counts are really huge) new entitlement program, when polling showed the majority of the American People were opposed to Obamacare, they should have known this would happen. When the stimulus did not reduce unemployment to 8%, as President Obama said it would . . . they should have known they would pay the price at the poll. When Democrat leadership continues, up to this very day, to insult the American People by trying to explain away the election losses they are about to suffer as having been bought and paid for by "special interests" when "special interests" are who put President Obama into power in the first place (I suppose the definition of "special interest" depends on whether or not they take a "special interest" in you), they are just asking to be defeated at the poll. This is all very predictable.

The real question comes on Wednesday. The GOP can come in with guns blazing, shut down the Government, repeal legislation, gridlock the machinery of Government . . . and then they, too, will suffer the consequences of their actions two years hence.

Or . . . they can swerve to the Center line and sit down and try to work out some of the pressing problems of today with the Democrat leaders. History suggests that it is possible to achieve great things when the Legislative branch is split, or at least in different hands than the Executive. Because the two parties are forced to work together. Neither will have a working majority. So, work together they must. Unless the GOP decides not to cooperate, in which case, they will be handed their pink slips in 2012, just as their Democrat predecessors are about to be.

Two years is a long time. Just ask President Obama. And that is exactly what President Obama is hoping. The GOP can easily prove themselves incompetent to lead in two years' time. GOP leadership is still non-existent. There is not yet a GOP leader who has shown the guts to stand up and clearly say that DADT must finally go. There is yet a GOP leader who has the nerve to stand up to the anti-choice wing and tell them they are wonderful people, but woefully out of touch with how the American People vote on this issue. There is yet to emerge a GOP leader willing to wrestle the reigns of power from the radio entertainers (and former Alaska Governors) who pretend to speak for the GOP, while raking in tens of millions of dollars a year entertaining people by saying outrageous things. Until such a leader emerges, the GOP will be rudderless and thrust this way and that way, depending on the news cycle.

Two years is plenty of time for John Boehner to mess things up in the House, turn himself into the most hated politician in the Land, as Nancy Pelosi did in very short order. He is capable of doing that, for sure. The real question the GOP must answer, after tomorrow is, "are there enough adults in the room" to bring about order in their chaotic house?

Let's hope so. Otherwise, the pendulum will swing back, they will be thrust from office once again, and we will have four more years of "Obama the Divider" and his class warfare rhetoric, which, quite frankly, has gotten very tiresome after two (short) years.

Woldy

We ARE becoming Western Europe . . .

Did you know that private companies in the Chicago area are having a hard time filling $12 to $14 per hour jobs? They are being told by job applicants that it is not worth it for them to get off unemployment to take those jobs. Because the incremental after tax income provided by taking those good paying jobs is not enough to incent them to get off the dole. Employers are being told this by job applicants. No shame. Just the facts. "I am better off staying on unemployment than taking your job" so, I choose to stay unemployed.

This is a bad sign, people.

We are becoming Western Europe. And, to remind you . . . that is not a good thing. It comes with all sorts of tradeoffs in the form of lower growth, less opportunity, more state control, less innovation, more smothering regulations . . . just ask anyone who has considered opening an office in Germany or France.

Our system of economic incentives is slipping into the wrong direction. We are providing people with incentives NOT to work by extending unemployment coverage to two years. And, people are making rational choices not to take jobs, which is not helping to reduce unemployment.

Of course, it is simplistic to suggest that this means that this fully explains our unemployment problem. But it is emblematic of the root problem and comes from the same cause. An over-active Government and national leadeship who believes that Government can, and should, solve all, or most, of our pressing problems. An expansive view of Government and its role in our economy and society. Distrust of private enterprise and the free markets. Too much faith in the power of regulation to solve problems. Too little faith in economic incentives.

We are sinking down the rabbit hole, faster and faster with every passing month.

Please . . . vote . . . GOP . . . this . . . cycle.

Our Country's future is at stake. We need to restore balance in Washington.

Woldy

U.S. Policy is Behind ME Peace Failure

The policies of this US Government doomed the current round of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks to failure before they even began. Obama set this up (perhaps intentionally, the thinking goes, because the failure of the talks will get layed at Israel's feet, thereby increasing the pressure on Israel to make concessions they are not comfortable with) so that the Palestinians are rewarded for obstinence because they know the U.S. has no choice but to step in and pressure Israel to make further concessions. This is a no-lose proposition for the Palestinians. They win if the talks succeed. They win if the talks fail. Anyone with business experience knows that these are not the conditions that will lead to a negotiated settlement. But, unfortunately, this is the dynamic that has been created by this Administration's policies and its approach to the conflict.

The only way a peace deal gets made is by the Palestinians realizing they must stand on their own feet and make a deal for the good of their own people. Put a stake in this conflict and kill it. That won't happen with Obama in the WH because Obama can not figure this out. He puts the U.S. in the position of standing in between these two parties as arbiter of the dispute, rather than as facilitator of a discussion between the parties. There is a big difference in these two models. In one case, you sit in judgment and settle arguments. In the other, you help the parties settle their own arguments.

The current situation is fraught with danger for Israel. The Palestinians have made settlements the keystone to their negotiating stance, knowing full well that there is no deal envisioned that does not include significant territory on which settlements currently sit staying with Israel. This is foolish posturing and not a good sign for their underlying intentions. One has to ask if they really do want a peace deal if this is their approach.

But the Obama Administration has made all this possible by giving the Palestinians a "get out of jail free" card by making the U.S. responsible for "bringing Israel to the table" and keeping them there. Any time the Palestinians want to stop negotiating, they will turn to the U.S. and say "see, we told you the Israelis don't want a deal . . . prove they do by making them give in on this point . . ."

The Palestinians must be responsible for outcome. U.S. policy has made it possible for the Palestinians to skirt their responsibility. No lasting deal will come to fruition under Obama, unless he changes this dynamic.

Woldy

Uncertainty is a Wet Blanket on Job Creation

1. Uncertainty over the cost of the health care law (and the thousands of pages of regulations written to implement it).

For instance, six months ago, no one was writing about the huge administrative burden created by a section hidden away within the health care law that forces businesses to issue 1099 tax forms to any company they buy more than $600 of goods or services from in a year. Just to give you some scale, for my small business, this will include more than 1,000 companies. We will need to collect over 1,000 tax identification numbers and prepare and mail over 1,000 tax forms we did not have to prepare before the health care legislation became law. And, our active 17,000 customer accounts that buy over $600 per year will be sending us 1099's that we will need to keep, I suppose, or attach to our corporate tax return.

And, to what end are we going through these new administative burdens? The tax scofflaws are not going to be sending out a blizzard of 1099 forms. Only the companies who follow the law already are going to be doing this. So, what the health care law has done is create administrative work for law abiding corporate citizens who already pay their taxes.

There are other pitfalls that have not been uncovered yet (the bill itself is over 2,000 pages long and the regulations written to enforce it are many times as long already, and growing).

This is not insignificant. And, it is going on in lots of different places in our economy. Just ask any business person.

2. Uncertainty over the regulatory environment. Michael Aronstein used the phrase "regulatory totalitarianism" when talking about what is coming out of Washington these days and it really is very accurate. The rule of law is eroding and being replaced by the rule of bureaucrats.

3. Uncertainty over tax rates. When was the last time it was November and we still did not know what the tax rates were for the following year? That is what this Congress and this President have promised the American people. How easy is it to plan business investment and hiring when you don't know what a major component of your costs will be (36% federal rate on any income you can muster up in this economy). Tax rates matter, Mr. President. The longer they are uncertain, the lower the amount of business investment.

This is one area the current Administration just does not understand. Uncertainty is preventing business investment and job creation. This is what is happening in the real world, Mr. President.

Woldy