Israel is at Risk

The Obama Administration wants a Middle East deal badly. They really need a deal. Their credibility is at stake. And, they don’t like the intransigent and uncooperative Netanyahu Government standing in their way. Obama did his smack-down this week (over a municipal zoning decision that has already been approved three times) because he wants to put Netanyahu in his place . . . which is to say, at the feet of Obama.

Why do I say this? Because Obama has maneuvered U.S. foreign policy into a corner from which the only way out is to squeeze Israel. He needs to deliver a peace deal in order to shore up support for his efforts to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Certainly containing Iran is an important political and security goal for the U.S. I am not sure I completely understand how alienating, and publicly castigating, our closest ally in the region squares with this goal, however.

More central to my overall point, Obama is asking Israel to make concessions that are permanent in order to allow Obama to pursue a fleeting, ephemeral political win. Convincing one country, or another, to go along with economic sanctions on Iran at this moment in time may, or may not, achieve the goal of eliminating the Iranian nuclear program. Countries can change their polices (i.e. Bush to Obama on Israel, Poland, Czech, Georgia, etc…) So, Israeli concessions to the Palestinians that help convince Russia, or China, to support sanctions one day, and then change their mind the next day when the U.S. does something that they don’t like (such as sell arms to Taiwan) completely negates the political value of the Israeli concessions.

And, once made, Israeli concessions are not easy to take back. Removing settlements and splitting Jerusalem is not something that can be undone. What we are doing is asking Israeli citizens to put themselves at risk (ask the people living near Gaza how much they have enjoyed the last five years of rocket fire since Israel pulled out of Gaza) so Obama can score political points that may mean nothing six months later. Not sure this is a great deal for Israeli citizens.

Especially with the backdrop of not having a viable, stable partner in negotiations who has the will and the power, to deliver on their promises. Just this week, a senior Minister in the PA government called for riots on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem. Would you trust such a government with your life? Your childrens’ lives? That is what we are asking them to do. It is their lives we are messing with. I am not sure most people understand this point.

And, the shame of it all is, as I have pointed out numerous times, including on the Chicago Tribune editorial page, Israel has consistently shown a willingness to make the ultimate sacrifices for peace when they have felt the support of their strongest ally, the U.S. and when there appeared to be a partner for peace. Today, the Obama Administration has removed the feeling of support (see Joe Biden’s telling remarks last week about the need to have no daylight between the U.S. and Israel, as a precondition to peace). And, the PA has shown no commitment to negotiations. So, what does Obama expect Israel to do? They are being told, loudly and clearly, that the U.S. special relationship with Israel is changing and that they (meaning the Obama Administration) want to be an “honest broker” and not favor one side over the other. This is what our foreign policy is morphing into.

That is why I titled this blog post the way I did.